tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-49268870824639414662024-03-13T02:08:17.708-07:00Autonomous Vehicle ImpactsAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-23677053614099506522016-08-11T11:33:00.001-07:002016-08-11T11:33:21.531-07:00Autonomous Vehicles - The Compelling Business CasesIf <span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: 'Source Serif Pro', serif;">you want to better understand how big a market that autonomous vehicles are both entering and creating, as well as the reasons why market penetration could be so soon and so rapid, then please read my full blog post at </span><a href="https://avimpacts.com/2016/08/11/autonomous-vehicles-compelling-business-cases/" rel="nofollow" style="border: 0px; color: #8c68cb; cursor: pointer; font-family: 'Source Serif Pro', serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">AVimpacts.com</a><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: 'Source Serif Pro', serif;">.</span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-623265904909017792016-07-21T09:57:00.000-07:002016-07-21T09:57:04.960-07:00I have moved to www.avimpacts.comPlease join me at <a href="http://www.avimpacts.com/">www.avimpacts.com</a> where I will be sharing some of my thoughts over the coming days.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-45095793532861163282014-11-06T09:45:00.000-08:002014-11-06T09:45:29.554-08:00Have our long-range transportation plans ‘missed the future’?<div>
This post is a brief synopsis of my post on Linkedin: <i><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/article/20141106075448-142059068-has-the-d-c-long-range-transportation-plan-missed-the-future" target="_blank">Has the D.C. long-range transportation plan ‘missed the future’?</a></i></div>
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With every day that goes by we move closer to the deployment of fully autonomous (driverless, self-driving) vehicles (AVs). New developments in the AV sector are occurring all the time now, and public awareness of the technology is high. The public, businesses and governments are also becoming increasingly aware that AVs could significantly impact on daily life and operational and business models.<div>
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So it may come as a surprise that the various long-range transportation plans (LRTPs) being produced by most jurisdictions around the world are only just recognizing AVs and their potential impacts. Yet these are the very documents designed to look decades into the future and intended to guide us and prepare us for what the future of transportation could be like.</div>
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The new LRTP for the District of Columbia (including Washington D.C.), 'moveDC' is a great example in that it recognizes that AVs could have a huge impact, and even recommends that D.C become a national test-bed for the technology. But it falls short of actually conveying just how transformational AVs could be on all of the other recommendations that it makes for transportation (including transit, pedestrians, bicycling and roads etc.).</div>
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So for the next 5 years or so, before the 'moveDC' document is likely to be updated, the public, politicians, planners and engineers will all be looking to this blue-print for guidance. They will be making decisions and committing funds to expensive infrastructure that they might not have done if they had a better understanding of how transformational AVs could be.</div>
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It is time for us to start considering the impacts of AVs in our LRTPs as we are already well into the planning timeframe where could not only impact, but even disrupt some of our current plans.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-34145740610835904312014-05-31T10:30:00.000-07:002014-05-31T10:30:23.335-07:00Don’t laugh; the new Google prototype car has implications for your business<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17px;"><span style="color: #333333; font-size: x-small;">When I set out to write my article </span><b><span style="color: #660000;">'</span></b></span><span style="color: #660000; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 17px;"><b><i><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20140528072025-142059068-don-t-laugh-the-new-google-prototype-car-has-implications-for-your-business?" target="_blank">Don’t laugh; the new Google prototype car has implications for your business</a></i>'</b></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;"> on LinkedIn I hoped that it would reach at least 2,000 people. </span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;">After I hit the 'post' button I realized that there was already at least half-a-dozen stories on this subject and most of them were using the same stock photo! So I lowered my expectations as competition was high and some of the other authors were professional writers. </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;">But thanks to incredibly strong support and interest, at it's peak this article was top of the list on 'LinkedIn Pulse' and went moderately viral. </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;">The number of views has slowed right down now, but it has topped over 133,000 views at the time of writing - such is the interest in this amazing subject. To put that into context - this blog has been running 16 months and has been viewed 15,000 times in total - with unique visitors probably below 5,000.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px;">'The acceleration is accelerating' - to quote a concept that I learned from <a href="http://www.siggibecker.de/blog/" target="_blank">Siggi Becker</a>.</span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-82024969963219181792014-03-05T20:36:00.000-08:002014-03-05T20:36:29.155-08:00'Designing a Driverless World'It was a pleasure to be invited by Arup to participate in the '<a href="http://www.arupconnect.com/2014/03/03/designing-a-driverless-world/" target="_blank">Designing a Driverless World</a>' workshop down in San Francisco on Feb 6, 2014.<br />
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The hosts, Arup, are a consulting engineering company that I had the pleasure to work for in both the Republic of Ireland in England, for four years in the not so distant past. Arup are a really interesting company that remain privately owned, despite being big enough to compete with anyone for the design of major infrastructure projects. They also invest a significant sum in research and development and have their own Foresight, Research and Innovation people. In my personal opinion you might consider them the Cadillac, or Rolls Royce (depending on which side of the Atlantic you are on) of Consulting Engineers.<br />
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So it was a pleasure to spend time with my fellow consulting engineers, transportation planners, urban planners, transit operators, developers, architects etc. that really seemed to have a rapidly growing awareness of what is coming with automated vehicle deployment. Many of the panellists and presenters obviously had a much better grasp of some of the intricacies of the subject, including Google and Qualcomm representatives amongst others.<br />
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You will see from the Arup write-up of the day that the discussions were lively, varied and included the occasional good-natured disagreement as you would expect with such varied perspectives of what the future may hold.<br />
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Of one thing I am certain, 'Designing a Driverless World' will be different to how we are designing now.<br />
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-61539315447988822212014-03-03T16:22:00.000-08:002014-03-03T16:22:05.786-08:00February 'AV Update' - The Momentum is BuildingAt CAVCOE we recently posted the <a href="http://www.cavcoe.com/avupdate/AV_Update_2014-02.html" target="_blank">February version</a> of our automated vehicles news round-up '<i><a href="http://www.cavcoe.com/Articles.htm" target="_blank">AV Update</a></i>' onto our website.<br />
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As you look through the previous versions of <i>AV Update</i> you can quickly see how there is very significant momentum building, and how this technology is rapidly grabbing the public's imagination. But surely this is what we should expect from a technology that is likely to see money flows in excess of 8% of GDP?....<br />
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In this February issue we can see a growing awareness of how AV's might impact on life in our cities. This is something that I feel very strongly about and I have written an article on this subject which is due to be published very shortly. As soon as it is available then I will discuss it more, but for those of you that have been reading my blog posts you will recognize it as a development of my Automated Vehicle Zones (AVZ) thinking.<br />
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Why wouldn't we create the right environment for AVs to provide their full benefits as soon as possible? Why would we wait for the natural decline of human driving when it limits the benefits that we know are there with AVs?<br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-32414494162464107622014-01-27T21:46:00.000-08:002014-01-27T21:46:12.768-08:00January Issue of AV Update - and why we need to dig beneath the headlinesThe <a href="http://www.cavcoe.com/Articles.htm" target="_blank">latest issue of AV Update</a> is now out for January - please subscribe if you don't want to wait for us to post up on the CAVCOE website. There is no advertizing or commitment required from subscribers - and it is just as easy to unsubscribe if you no longer wish to receive it.<br />
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There is a very clear accelerating growth trend in the number of announcements and articles on the subject of autonomous vehicles (AVs) online. When I started researching this subject in earnest around September 2011 there was probably one article on the BBC News site every two or three months. This week it is possible that for a short while that there were three different articles that talked about AVs on the site at the same time.<br />
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This month we had two studies released which caught my attention. The <a href="http://press.ihs.com/press-release/automotive/self-driving-cars-moving-industrys-drivers-seat" target="_blank">IHS study</a> which I personally didn't think a great deal of, as it was only made available to the press for free (so my comments are limited to the press release), and forecast some market penetration rates for AVs which I found to be very conservative as it seemed that they had been calculated from an automotive industry perspective. When an industry faces potential disruption then it may not be wise to base your calculations on the historical growth in that sector.<br />
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The <a href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR443-1.html" target="_blank">Rand study</a> appeared to be significantly better researched and provided some great background work. I didn't agree with their treatment of shared vehicle fleets as I think that there are compelling business reasons why they are both inevitable and likely to grow at a rapid rate.<br />
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So despite my impression that the Rand report was significantly better, it was the IHS report that got most media exposure. Now it could be that IHS have a much better media distribution system, or it could be that the media found it easier to latch onto an easy headline, e.g. '<a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2014/01/01/9-of-cars-to-be-driverless-cars-by-2035/" target="_blank">9% of Cars to be Driverless by 2035</a>'.<br />
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My disdain for the headline writers continued with the CES in Las Vegas. <a href="http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/induct-launches-navia-the-first-100-percent-electric-self-driving-shuttle-in-the-us-238980311.html" target="_blank">Induct launched the Navia</a> as the world's first commercially available driverless low-speed electric shuttle at CES,which was the real headline for me. I was also very impressed that <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2014/01/09/tech/innovation/self-driving-cars-ces/" target="_blank">Audi demonstrated on public roads</a> their <a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/news/523351/ces-2014-audi-shows-off-a-compact-brain-for-self-driving-cars/" target="_blank">miniaturized shoe-box sized self-driving technology</a> in a gorgeous looking A7.<br />
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But what got the real headlines at CES? Why, a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25653253" target="_blank">drifting self-driving BMW</a> of course...<br />
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To further 'add insult to my injury' in this matter, the BMW CEO for North America seemed to think that BMW still want to keep the driver involved with the '<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bmws-plan-for-self-driving-cars-2014-1" target="_blank">ultimate driving machine</a>'.<br />
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-15499804234749999212013-11-20T19:59:00.000-08:002013-11-20T19:59:07.191-08:00CAVCOE and the Latest AV UpdateI am very pleased to announce that the latest issue of AV Update is now also available <a href="http://www.cavcoe.com/avupdate/AV_Update_2013-11.html" target="_blank">here</a>.<br />
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In this issue Barrie Kirk and I announce that we have just launched a new non-profit organization:<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">The Canadian Automated Vehicles Centre of Excellence (<a href="http://www.cavcoe.com/" target="_blank">CAVCOE</a>)</span></b><br />
which is now the official publisher of AV Update.<br />
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If you would like to receive AV Update directly by email, then just hit the 'subscribe' button on the the front page of the new CAVCOE website at:<br />
<a href="http://www.cavcoe.com/">www.cavcoe.com</a><br />
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There is more about CAVCOE and what it is all about on the website if you are interested. We believe that just about everyone is going to be a stakeholder in some shape or form when Automated Vehicles appear, and we want to help in whatever way we can to maximize the benefits and mitigate the downsides.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-42010585153413285902013-10-16T08:29:00.002-07:002013-10-16T08:29:56.561-07:00Second Edition of 'AV Update'The latest, and second, edition of Autonomous (or Automated) Vehicle Update is now available <a href="http://www.globisconsulting.ca/avupdate/AV_Update.html" target="_blank">here</a>.<br />
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Interest in AV's is continuing to increase and for the first time that we are aware of a national leader has pointed towards this technology.<br />
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Also it is encouraging that the US House of Representatives had planned to discuss the impact of AV's on surface transportation. Although postponed, we look forward to tuning in live to this meeting when it is eventually re-scheduled.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-77695729698786184922013-10-03T14:41:00.000-07:002013-10-03T14:41:30.033-07:00'Countdown to Autonomy'On page 40 of the October/November 2013 edition of <a href="http://traffictechnologytoday.com/magazine.php" target="_blank">Traffic Technology International</a>, there is an article called '<a href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ecd7d66f#/ecd7d66f/40" target="_blank">Countdown to Autonomy</a>' that I put together to help traffic managers understand the potential implications of fully automated vehicles. <div>
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Hopefully this will be of interest to a wider readership as I explain why I think that we should all try and be prepared as we can for the implications that result from this technology. I also point out some of the wider impacts on transportation projects which should be of interest to both transportation professionals and tax-payers.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-8885591501158977252013-10-02T00:10:00.000-07:002013-10-02T00:12:22.705-07:00Why Fully Self-Driving Isn't the Automaker's Goal<div style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-top: 5px; padding: 0px;">
A number of automakers have been making statements recently around the subject of automated (autonomous, self-driving, driverless) cars. The general message seems to be: 'We are going to add safety features to our car that will automate most or all of the driving task, but the driver will always need to be in the loop and of course the pleasure of driving is so great that there will always be times when the driver will just take over.'</div>
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For example:</div>
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<span style="color: #505050; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px;">BMW: “<a href="http://news.drive.com.au/drive/motor-news/bmw-admits-philosophical-dilemma-with-driverless-cars-20130923-2u8v2.html" target="_blank">We already have a lot of assistance packages in our cars, but for some of our customers their favourite part is the 'Off' button because we do not want to replace the driver."</a></span> - (drive.com.au)</div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 20px;">GM: "<a href="http://www.autonews.com/article/20130819/OEM06/308199992/paving-the-way-to-self-driving-vehicles#axzz2gU8uVnvi" target="_blank">W"e always want the customer to know that we're not trying to replace them," he says. "These systems are there for their convenience</a>." (autonews.com)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Mercedes Benz: "</span><span style="font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewdepaula/2013/09/30/autonomous-driving-will-become-an-option-on-regular-mercedes-models-by-2020/2/" target="_blank">“Nobody wants a ‘big brother’ in the car,” Zetsche said. “However, a friend who frees us from chores or helps us in complex situations is very welcome. For us, the car means freedom and independence, and it will remain so at Mercedes-Benz.</a>” (Forbes)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Tesla: <a href="http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/155232-the-future-of-cars-is-autopilot-not-self-driving-according-to-elon-musk" target="_blank">"</a></span><span style="font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/155232-the-future-of-cars-is-autopilot-not-self-driving-according-to-elon-musk" target="_blank">It’s not just the sensors that Musk doesn’t like; he doesn’t much care for the phrase “self-driving car” either. Instead, he seems to prefer “autopilot.” While it might seem like trivial semantics, it does make it clear that this technology is intended as a tool for drivers — not a replacement for drivers. For safety and liability purposes, a human will still need to be paying attention when these cars hit the market.</a>" (extremetech.com)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Notice the commonality in outlook here?</span><br />
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These attitudes in some ways highlight the automakers quandary. They have a tried and tested 130 year old business model of incremental improvements where they seek to sell every single one of us at least one vehicle. They sell speed, power, luxury, connectivity, versatility, safety (except some of the previous sales points are in direct contradiction of safety?...) and even efficiency, as the younger generations are so much more aware of 'green' issues.</div>
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Such a business model is great for the shareholders of these automakers - but considering most vehicles stand around idle for 90% of the time, this can be considered a serious waste of the earth's finite resources. Also consider that human error is a factor in some 93% of crashes - we have a terrible conundrum where there is an entire industry, including aftermarket parts, that relies on crashes occurring.</div>
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Whereas a truly self-driving, NHTSA Level 4 automated vehicle, one that is capable of driving unmanned, challenges (if not disrupts) this business model. Instead it <a href="http://autonomous-vehicle-impacts.blogspot.ca/2013/04/the-inevitable-rise-of-autonomous.html" target="_blank">inevitably leads to the development of automated shared mobility fleets</a> - especially from the business models of taxi, car-rental, car-share, ride-share and P2P companies.</div>
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We know from studies that <a href="http://www.uctc.net/access/38/access38_carsharing_ownership.pdf" target="_blank">1 shared vehicle can typically take 9 to 13 private vehicles off the road</a> (Shaheen, UC Berkeley). Studies around the shared automated fleets, or 'aTaxis' suggests that <a href="http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/Presentations/ITE_SmartDrivingCars/TransAction2013_SmartDrivingCars_041113.pdf" target="_blank">1 fully automated Level 4 car could take at least 2.5 private vehicles off the road during peak hours</a> (Kornhauser, Princeton) - and maybe more.</div>
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With these aTaxis the average person could relinquish ownership of their private vehicle and hire the right size vehicle for their commute to work, family time at the weekend, shifting goods etc. - and <a href="http://sustainablemobility.ei.columbia.edu/files/2012/12/Transforming-Personal-Mobility-Jan-27-20132.pdf" target="_blank">save 40% of annual transportation outlay in the process (as extrapolated from 'Transforming personal mobility - Earth Institute, Columbia University)</a>.</div>
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Therefore with and aTaxis we would find that the automakers sell many more cars to the fleets and less to private owners. Which means that their 130 year old business model no longer looks so robust. Fleet owners will want very different characteristics in their cars and they will be very aggressive on beating down prices.</div>
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So comments like the ones automakers make in these articles about 'keeping the driver in the loop' and that 'drivers will always want to drive' etc. don't really stack up when you consider the likely new business models and the societal benefits that Level 4 automated vehicles can bring.</div>
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Also note that the 2020 date for this technology from the automakers is not for Level 4 automated technology - but Level 3 (tending towards Level 4), where the driver is required to take over the driving task when necessary - because that preserves their business model - 1 driver, 1 car (or more).</div>
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Whereas <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMtz97GZtF8" target="_blank"><span style="color: #336699;">Google have explicitly stated that their aspiration is to</span> go for Level 4</a> if they can manage it, which would mean bypassing Level 3 altogether. On the Friday following this presentation by Ron Medford of Google there was a public meeting regarding autonomous vehicles in California. There I took the chance to ask the panel, about when they thought fully self-driving cars would be available. Anthony Levandowski of Google replied that they stand by <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNhyt107c88" target="_blank">Sergey Brin's statement at the California autonomous vehicle bill signing</a>, which was where he intimated that they are aiming for about five years, i.e. 2017.</div>
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So when you read what the automakers are saying on the subject of driverless cars, please consider that there is another side to the story and the business models and agendas lie behind much of what is said.</div>
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2017 is the date that we should be preparing for. To not do so risks all sorts of avoidable societal and economic collateral damage.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-46521559677950043912013-09-07T10:37:00.000-07:002013-09-07T10:37:12.301-07:00Is Canada Ready for Self-Driving Cars?A few weeks ago I was interviewed over the phone by Rob Drinkwater of the Canadian Press. He was doing an article on driverless, or self-driving cars and in his investigations he was told that he should speak to me to get a different perspective than the government one.<br />
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So he contacted me and we spoke a couple of times for about an hour in total. Although I sought to explain just something of the breadth and depth of this subject, I managed to pepper the conversation with some statements to help reinforce the point I was making.<br />
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Well, with the government folks that he contacted not saying too much, Rob's fall-back was our interview - in which it seems he pulled out all of the emphatic sound-bites, and put them together in his article. <br />
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Because of the provocative theme, and it being a syndicated article the story was picked up by all the major media outlets in Canada and was published in some form in every major Canadian Municipality.<br />
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A few of the outlets that carried the article and their headlines:<br />
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<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2013/09/01/canada-driverless-cars.html" target="_blank">CBC: Is Canada Ready for Self-Driving Cars?</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/08/31/self-driving-cars-canada_n_3848540.html" target="_blank">Huffington Post: Self-Driving Car Technology To Hit Canada 'Like A Tidal Wave': Transportation Advocate</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/canada-needs-to-get-ready-for-self-driving-cars-transportation-advocate/article14062622/" target="_blank">The Globe and Mail: Canada needs to get ready for self-driving cars: transportation advocate</a></li>
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Hopefully, even though the article is woefully short on facts, it has helped raise the awareness of the subject and has prompted more discussion. Certainly the number of comments and 'shares' on social media impressed me that there is a growing interest in this subject.<br />
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Of course the reader can probably simply replace the word 'Canada' and place your own country name in there, and the main point of the article will still be a valid question: "Is my jurisdiction ready for self-driving cars?"<br />
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It is my belief that the more that people know now, then the more prepared they will be when decisions are needed around this technology. In my opinion it is already time that Governments need to be thinking about policy, and businesses need to be thinking about strategy. Right now we are in the 'sweet spot' when it is possible to be 'proactive', but as the months go by and the deployment of self-driving cars looms larger, then some responses will start to be 'reactive'... which isn't usually a good thing.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-76202259805143451132013-09-06T16:44:00.001-07:002013-09-06T16:44:05.634-07:00The First Edition of 'AV Update'The Autonomous Vehicle (AV) story is a fascinating one, that could end up fundamentally impacting the lives of most everyone on the planet in the next two decades. <br />
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As not everyone has the time to follow this story as it unfolds, my associate, Barrie Kirk, and I have put together an '<a href="http://www.globisconsulting.ca/avupdate/AV_Update.html" target="_blank">AV Update</a>' newsletter that we will distribute on an occasional basis.<br />
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If you want to read it (and then hopefully subscribe to the email version), then just click on <a href="http://www.globisconsulting.ca/avupdate/AV_Update.html" target="_blank">this link</a>.<br />
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In this first issue there have been some developments which give some clues as to what Google's intentions may be in the shared mobility space. By investing heavily in Uber it does suggest that they will have the infrastructure already in place for when automated taxi fleets become possible - probably in 2017 as that is the date that Google aspire to have their self-driving car technology in public hands.<br />
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The rumour about a possible Google, Continental and IBM alliance is also very intriguing in the possibilities it would open up. Rather than speculate now, let's just wait until the Frankfurt Motor Show starts in just a few days, and see if there are any announcements on this subject.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-63811116284383718542013-07-25T22:34:00.002-07:002013-07-25T22:34:53.629-07:00Autonomous Vehicles: An Inconvenient Truth (Continued)It's an Inconvenient Truth, but vehicles capable of driving unmanned could be with us by 2017. That's based on what <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnx2ZWhpY2xlYXV0b21hdGlvbndvcmtzaG9wfGd4OjNhNmJjMDMzMjYyYWVhZTE" target="_blank">Ron Medford of Google said</a> at the recent <a href="http://www.vehicleautomation.org/home" target="_blank">TRB Workshop on Road Vehicle Automation</a>, and on what <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNhyt107c88" target="_blank">Sergey Brin (Google co-founder) said at the signing of the California Autonomous Vehicle Bill on 25 Sept 2015</a>. (Since confirmed on numerous occasions - and in particular by Anthony Levandowski of Google to a question that I asked the panel at the California Public meeting on the Friday after the main Workshop).<br />
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On 22 May <a href="https://app.box.com/s/okaedgl7rgqwsgq0gzt6" target="_blank">I presented on this 'Autonomous Vehicles: An Inconvenient Truth'</a> subject in association with Barrie Kirk and Globis Consulting.<br />
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My key 'Inconvenient Truths' were:<br />
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<ol>
<li>We aren’t planning for exponential</li>
<li>Much sooner than you think</li>
<li>Business models will be impacted if not disrupted (public and private sectors)</li>
<li>This is but the Dawn of the Robot Revolution </li>
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But since May I have chosen to add some more to the list - see below.</div>
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So let's unwrap that a little bit, bearing in mind that there shouldn't be much of a credibility gap with this technology any more, because at the TRB Workshop the White House saw this as possibly the hottest technology policy issue, and the Director of California DMV who does not like hyperbolae saw this as a 'game changer':</div>
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1. We aren't planning for exponential</h2>
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We have four years and small change from now (July 2013) until our 'five year warning date' for the possible deployment of Google self-driving car technology. If you understand 'exponential' then you will appreciate that in the next four years we are going to see as much technological advancement since 40 years ago - 1973. I will leave you the reader to get your head round that one - think about how much things have improved that haven't seen a paradigm shift - like cars. Then consider areas where we have had a paradigm shift - like telecoms - where we have seen four paradigm shifts in that time (Landline-Cell-Smartphone-iPhone/Apps-Social Media Revolution) and are expecting the fifth this year with the release of mainstream wearable computing in the form of Google Glass.</div>
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The problem with the transportation mindset, is that the last paradigm shift on the roads started back in 1868 when Karl Benz patented the modern motor car. Since then we have seen numerous incremental improvements, but no paradigm shifts. So don't be surprised that the telecoms sector gets what that means, but that anyone in the transportation sector has never experienced it on the job.</div>
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Billions of dollars worth of infrastructure projects are being planned or built at the moment, designed to function for 20, 30, 40 years or more. Have any of the designs been made with a cognisance of the impacts that deployment of autonomous vehicles could cause? I'll go out on a limb and say the answer is a resounding 'no', and add that it would be great if a reader of this blog could correct me.</div>
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2. Much sooner than you think</h2>
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Just in case you missed it.... <b><span style="color: red; font-size: x-large;">2017</span></b></div>
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I bet you, your business and the government services around you are not planning for a paradigm shift in how we 'do' road transportation, and all that means to society, to happen in about 4 years time. But there it is - Google probably know better than any of us the socio-economic impacts of what a self-driving car means, and they have fulfilled their social compact obligations to us, by giving us as much warning as they can that the paradigm shift is coming. It's now up to us to sort out what all this might mean.</div>
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3. Business models will be impacted if not disrupted (public and private sectors)</h2>
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In most developed nations every jurisdiction is required to produce a Long Range Transportation Plan, because mobility is a key part of a healthy and functioning society - this is basically a business or operational model intended to ensure we plan wisely how our tax dollars are spent. As many of the key autonomous vehicle developers have facilities in the Silicon Valley, and as Google Self-Driving Cars have been driving on Californian Roads, then you might expect that the <a href="http://onebayarea.org/pdf/Draft_Plan_Bay_Area_3-22-13.pdf" target="_blank">San Francisco Bay Area Plan (Draft)</a> to probably be leading the world in what this technology means.... Well, page 125 notes that they exist and that they will be researched. Yep, that's it - not much help to their planners and engineers, or anyone else for that matter.</div>
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Now 2017 may turn out to be an underestimate of how long it takes to have this technology ready to be used safely by the public. But surely it is best if we all plan for this date, including all businesses and public sector organizations, as the downsides and unintended consequences of not planning could be severe.</div>
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Those that don't plan risk becoming collateral damage in terms of business disruption and possibly even impact on your personal situation (e.g. if you are planning on buying a new or replacement car in the next four years there are certain things you would benefit from knowing). There is more on some specific business models that will be impacted in 6. below.</div>
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4. This is but the Dawn of the Robot Revolution </h2>
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I may sound nuts (well I think I sound nuts!), but check out the latest <a href="http://www.darpa.mil/Our_Work/TTO/Programs/DARPA_Robotics_Challenge.aspx" target="_blank">DARPA Robotics Challenge (DRC)</a>. Then look at the DARPA Grand Challenge of 2004 that 13 years later may see self-driving cars on our roads. Then take note of No. 1 on my list above - technology is exponential. Then consider that as a result of the DRC we could see robots doing manual work outside of factories in maybe 2021-2023.</div>
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My guess is that the Artificial Intelligence Operating System (AIOS) being developed for the first autonomous car will likely be the base AIOS for many future robotic developments. This might dominate the robotics market just as the Microsoft Windows OS has dominated the PC market.</div>
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I am also willing to bet that not too many long range plans by municipal and regional governments are taking this robotic future into account. It likely leads to the de-construction of capitalism as we know it - our wealth could be measured by how many robots we own...</div>
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I am not making this up - robotic development is happening at a staggering rate. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/results?q=boston+dynamics&um=1&ie=UTF-8&gl=CA&sa=N&tab=w1" target="_blank">Check out some Boston Dynamics videos as an example of the public/civilian face of what is possible</a>.</div>
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I'll add an extra Inconvenient Truth for fun:</div>
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5. We don't have a consistent name for this technology...</h2>
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So what's in a name?... I appreciate that this is a US-centric view:</div>
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The law uses autonomous - currently Bills passed in Nevada, Florida, California and District of Columbia all define 'Autonomous' vehicles. I am fairly certain that the bills in process in 15 other US States also do too.</div>
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The latest NHTSA definitions use 'Automation' - which was pushed at the first TRB Workshop for Road Vehicle Automation in Irvine in 2012, and 'stuck' with the help of the the NHTSA regulations, SAE and others at the second TRB Workshop in Stanford. I do find it odd that not even the public bodies can agree on a common name here. I can imagine the highway designers, having 'Automated Vehicles' in the design codes, and trying to interpret that with the Law that refers to Autonomous Vehicles.</div>
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Google use 'Self-Driving', which is simple and descriptive but as they are the principal ones using it, it makes it hard for regulators to adopt it at the moment. Plus it's an extra word. On a recent poll on LinkedIn it came out ahead of the other names (but that was in the 'Self Driving Car' group! - who'd have thought!). </div>
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Driverless is probably the most colloquial term that returns the most hits from the search engines.... along with stories of vehicles out of control with no driver present... Maybe not!</div>
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None of the above are unique to this technology - although there are plenty of others that are unique but have not gained anything like as much traction - e.g. Brad Templeton's 'Robocars' - initially I disliked it, but it is uniquely searchable and right now that would be really useful. My own attempt with 'Autonome' has issues and no traction. We ideally want a single unmistakable word that is easily searchable - or a unique acronym that everyone can agree on (I will not list the various acronyms - I am at over 20 thus far...).</div>
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Next time you get a document that you think should contain a reference to this technology - say a long range transportation plan. See if you can find it using the search terms above. I found one document that used none of the terms above and needed me to search for 'Advanced Vehicle Technology'.</div>
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My next Inconvenient Truth is deliciously ironic when you consider that many observers agree that <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/chunkamui/2013/05/08/driverless-cars-trillions-are-up-for-grabs/" target="_blank">autonomous vehicles will see trillion dollar money flows</a>:</div>
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6. If this is so important, so soon, so transformational and so disruptive, then why isn't there any money flowing around it yet?</h2>
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Sure there is lots of private money being spent by the autonomous vehicle technology developers, and a few researchers and University off-shoots getting funding to develop the technology. But what about the government departments and the businesses that will be affected? Why aren't they spending money to understand this better and making plans for impacts and potential disruption? Is anyone concerned that we are in the processing of committing billions of dollars to infrastructure projects with no knowledge if their design is robust enough to accommodate the deployment of autonomous vehicles in as little as four years time?... Aren't my tax dollars potentially being wasted by ignoring the possibilities here?</div>
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My glib answer - there is very little research money flowing around autonomous vehicles because it doesn't have the word 'Connected' in it. There is a lot of history and politics and vested reputations and vested interests here, so as an example I will cite the <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnx2ZWhpY2xlYXV0b21hdGlvbndvcmtzaG9wfGd4OmRiNzBiMzE4ZmJmY2UxMQ" target="_blank">US DOT ITS Joint Program Office presentation at the TRB Workshop on Road Vehicle Automation</a>, slide 11:</div>
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"Unconnected, automated vehicles could negatively impact road network operations"</div>
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and the p<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 1.2em;">ièce de résistance:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 1.2em;">"</span><span style="line-height: 19.1875px;">“…driverless cars will only arrive if and when all cars are connected </span><span style="line-height: 19.1875px;">to one another and the infrastructure.” - Strategic Analytics"</span></div>
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I would very much like the US DOT to present the evidence to back up those statements - particularly the second one. My research tells me that the second is an incorrect statement (note how polite I am being), and Brad Templeton who is a Google consultant was also very keen to point this error out on the open mic after the presentation. </div>
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But there are plenty of other reasons why autonomous vehicles don't have any money flowing yet into research and revision of operational, business and revenue models. The main one at the moment being because no one else is spending any money on it. If no one else is, then why should I? (Errr... Maybe because you stand the risk of going bust, or wasting a lot of money and resources, if you do nothing for too much longer?). The pressure is building behind this dam, and when it breaks then just about everyone will want studies and all sorts doing to give them confidence moving forward.</div>
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Knowing what I know, here are a very few examples where I would be doing my due diligence now:</div>
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Public sector:</div>
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<li>transportation projects or infrastructure, or projects with a surface transportation component</li>
<li>operational, business and revenue models relying on predicted road traffic flows more than four years out</li>
<li>energy generation and distribution</li>
<li>health service provision - particularly trauma and critical care and organ donations</li>
<li>financial/treasury models relying on revenues more than two years out</li>
<li>Public Private Partnerships (P3s)</li>
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Business sectors - expect significant impacts or even disruption to existing operational, business and revenue models: </div>
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<li>Trucking</li>
<li>Taxis / Limousines</li>
<li>Vehicle Rental</li>
<li>Car Share / Ride Share etc.</li>
<li>Car Parking</li>
<li>Auto Insurance</li>
<li>Postal / Parcel Delivery</li>
<li>Public Private Partnerships (P3s)</li>
<li>Auto Body Repair</li>
<li>Any vehicle fleet operators</li>
<li>Disabled/Seniors services</li>
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Finally - this is an extension of No.6 really, but it is a huge challenge</div>
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7. We need a new paradigm in government where policy precedes technology</h2>
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Hopefully this is pretty much self explanatory. Either we make plans now on the assumption that this tech will 'do what it says on the tin', or do what is time-proven prudent and we wait until the tech is 100% safe in pilot form, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations" target="_blank">and then wait some more for the 'early adopters' to go up the learning curve before we jump in and get the 'early majority' benefits</a>. </div>
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The danger of making plans now is that it is all wasted as the tech deployment and market penetration and impacts are nothing like expected. In fact it could do an 'electric car' on us and despite promising much, it then fails to deliver.</div>
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The danger of following the tried and trusted prudent method is that the early adopters are proved right and gain a massive business or operational advantage that quickly becomes so insurmountable that our jurisdiction loses out big time to its neighbours. Businesses shrink or go bust, the economic vitality is lost and it all goes downhill from there. Consider this statement in light of the 'trillion dollar money flows' argument - this won't be one sector suddenly struggling, it will be multiple sectors with a magnified impact as a result.</div>
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Because autonomous vehicles have the potential to transform society, and because I have demonstrated some money flow scenarios where market penetration is very rapid, then I recommend that each jurisdiction look very carefully at the pro's and con's of putting policy before technology. With this tech, the normal prudent paradigm of steady and cautious may prove to be our un-doing.</div>
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There may be a middle ground that is the optimal solution - I just raise a warning that it is an inconvenient truth that technology is developing so fast, and its impacts could be so great, that a new paradigm in governance may also needed to better cope.</div>
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Whatever autonomous vehicles bring to society, I can assure you that it will not be business as usual. </h3>
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Is that another Inconvenient Truth?...</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-53246027194193024372013-07-22T10:00:00.000-07:002013-07-22T13:47:19.534-07:00Why Automated Vehicle Zones (AVZs) Might Develop<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-r_c8q0Q_a9c/Ue1hu0TSCTI/AAAAAAAABCQ/h7buATJ7Amo/s1600/IMG_1768+-+Version+2.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="231" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-r_c8q0Q_a9c/Ue1hu0TSCTI/AAAAAAAABCQ/h7buATJ7Amo/s320/IMG_1768+-+Version+2.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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This is a poster that I presented at the TRB workshop on road vehicle automation at Stanford University (15-19 July 2013). Please excuse the poor quality of production, but rather note the concept which generated a reasonable amount of interest amongst those TRB participants who stopped to discuss my poster.</div>
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In it I propose that if you follow the business models that result in the inevitable rise of fully automated (NHTSA Level 4) taxi fleets, and combine that with the aspirations of urban planners (reflecting the desires of many mayor's and councillors in major cities) then AVZs are a natural development of the convergence of these streams.</div>
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On the poster I assumed that Google would release their technology in 2018, with it being certified safe for unmanned use by 2020 - thus leading to the first AVZ, somewhere in the world around 2023. But in a public session on the Friday, I asked the panel when NHTSA Level 4 technology might be deployed - and Anthony Levandowski of Google referred me to the comments made by Sergey Brin at the California Autonomous Vehicle bill signing ceremony on 25 Sept 2012. At that time Sergey Brin intimated that the Google tech would be in public hands within five years - so in July 2013 we are looking at 2017 - that is 4 years and small change.</div>
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In which case, if I am correct with my business models and estimates for market penetration, we might see the first AVZ in 2020. The competitive edge that any city might gain by switching to an AVZ is considerable - not to mention the quality of life, safety and emissions benefits.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-18288884011346149872013-07-18T01:11:00.000-07:002013-07-18T01:11:45.651-07:00Google aspire to bring Level 4 Automation to market - maybe within 5 years<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At the TRB workshop on road vehicle automation yesterday (Weds 17 July) Ron Medford made it clear that Google would like to bring a NHTSA Level 4 automation (i.e. capable of unmanned) product to market. There are clearly many issues and hurdles, so no guarantees, but the Google aspiration is for this Level 4.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Last year, 25 Sept 2012, Sergey Brin intimated that they would have SDC tech in public hands within 5 years. Earlier this year two separate Google SDC team members have stated that they would like to have the SDC tech in public hands within 5 years.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We shouldn't 'hang our hats' on these aspirations, but at the same time I take this as a very clear advance warning signal that we are now potentially running out of time to prepare for this.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For me this is a potential 'wow' moment. Level 4, unmanned is the 'game changer' - which is the language used by the Director of the California DMV stated at the conference the previous day. The clincher for credibility, in my opinion, came from there being a Senior Researcher from the White House who spoke off the record.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Level 4 is the 'quantum leap', the 'paradigm shift', the 'game changer'. If it is less than 5 years away then we don't have much time to prepare.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Workshop has been incredible thus far - significantly more attendees than last year and the level of knowledge and awareness is so much greater. The public and private sectors are well represented and the language/mood of some has moved from guarded/skeptical to open and even excited.</span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-80091767530385238662013-05-14T12:37:00.000-07:002013-05-14T12:37:00.949-07:00Open Letter to the Prime Minister of Canada
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I have written previously to the Prime Minister of Canada on 5 April 2013 urging his government to be aware of the impending arrival of autonomous vehicle technology and advising that the government needs to start planning now and that many ministries and businesses should be included in such planning. The prompt reply from his office said that my comments have been carefully considered and that they have taken the liberty to forward my e-mail to the Minister of Transport.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As 5 weeks have now passed and I have heard nothing further from the Prime Minister or the Minster of Transportation then with Barrie Kirk, my associate from Globis Consulting, we have co-signed a letter that Barrie wrote and sent it to both the PM and Cc'ed to the Minister of Transport.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you too feel strongly about the issue of whether your jurisdiction is taking autonomous vehicles and their impacts seriously then please consider writing something yourself - such communications can sometimes make a difference. Here is the letter that Barrie sent on our behalf:</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Open Letter to the Prime Minister of Canada</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Dear Prime Minister,</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I am shocked that no Canadian government, federal, provincial, or municipal, is investigating the launch of autonomous vehicles and planning for the huge impacts on our cities, transportation, public transit, government and businesses. Compared to other countries, Canada is a backwater when it comes to planning for the introduction of self-driving cars. Canada needs some leadership in this area and I urge you to provide that leadership now.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Let me review some of the activities in other countries:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">U.S.</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- The Senate is holding a hearing on the technology and its impacts on May 15, 2013.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- The Department of Transport has started to investigate the same topics.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- Laws permitting testing of autonomous vehicles have been passed in Nevada, Florida, California, and Washington D.C.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- 13 other US States have similar bills in process.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- Bill Ford, the Executive Chairman of Ford, has said "cars will soon drive themselves and ......it will all happen sooner than you might guess.".</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- The Earth Institute of Columbia University has published an important report on the huge impact of autonomous vehicles on public transit.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Europe</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- A number of governments have enacted laws related to autonomous vehicles.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- The Sunday Times reports that the U.K. is about to change the law to to allow testing of autonomous vehicles on public roads.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- A recent editorial in the The Telegraph said that autonomous vehicles will trigger a burst of economic growth, transform transport around the world, including in Britain, free vast amounts of time, increase productivity, make us a lot wealthier and unleash drastic, unpredictable economic and cultural changes." </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- A recent newsletter published by Lloyds had an article on driverless cars that ended with the following: "The [insurance] market needs to monitor driverless cars and these new technologies – and their associated risks – as they evolve during the next few years. Completely ignoring this scenario is not a good option."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Japan</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- Hitachi has commercially launched a low-speed, single-seat autonomous car for seniors and the handicapped. (Canadian universities and businesses have the skills and resources to have developed this -- why didn't we?)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Car manufacturers</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- GM, Volvo, Nissan, BMW, etc. say their first fully-autonomous cars will be launched in 2020.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- Google is expected to have its self-driving car technology in the public's hands even sooner.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- Cadillac has started testing a semi-autonomous car that will be launched even earlier than that.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There are very many benefits, as well as some issues. Planning for autonomous vehicles will take time and will involve many different federal departments, as well as provincial and municipal governments. Leadership needs to come from the top, as it has in the US and the UK. I urge you to provide that leadership and start now the process of planning for the huge impacts on our cities, transportation, public transit, government and businesses.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yours sincerely</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Barrie Kirk, P.Eng.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">and</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Paul Godsmark</span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-68193635353823556422013-05-10T10:23:00.001-07:002013-05-10T10:23:27.563-07:00Who Will Champion the Cause of Autonomous Vehicles?I have just returned this week from presenting at the <a href="http://www.ccmta.ca/english/index.cfm" target="_blank">Canadian Council of Motor Transport Administrators (CCMTA)</a> where the subject of autonomous vehicles was mentioned by each of the speakers in the opening session. Following my presentation it then came up for discussion under the general heading of emerging issues in the three main committees. Autonomous vehicles were probably 'the' hot topic of the Annual Meeting.<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
There was considerable interest in my presentation and a huge variation in familiarity with the technology and the implications by the attendees. Hopefully by attending I have helped some to improve their understanding of autonomous vehicles and challenged some others on just how broad the implications could be on surface transportation and society as a whole.</div>
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My CCMTA presentation can be downloaded <i><a href="https://www.box.com/s/89vlhdrqdvncoz3bkysx" target="_blank">here</a></i>.</div>
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The only reason that I could make it to the incredible city of Iqaluit, Nunavut, which has no roads to it and is the closest that I have ever been to the arctic circle, is through the very generous sponsorship from CCMTA for the speakers. There are a number of conferences and annual meetings that I would really like to attend and speak at this year, but resources are simply not available. Yet surely this subject, which has the potential to have the biggest impact on society since the internet, should command much greater attention and have funds flowing into it already?</div>
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So, my question is, applicable in every jurisdiction: </div>
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<i><span style="font-size: large;">"Who will champion the cause of autonomous vehicles?"</span></i></div>
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<div>
The CCMTA are possibly now the most aware organization with national influence in Canada, and they have a vital role in bringing order to the way that vehicles are licensed and used on the roads and how the roads operate safely and efficiently. But, and this is the 'but', the implications of the autonomous vehicle when they are certified safe to drive unmanned go way beyond our road networks. They will impact on almost every aspect of daily life and affect almost every government ministry and department and impact on so many businesses.</div>
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My hope is that the CCMTA will recognize that this subject, although it falls firmly within their remit of license and regulation, is also potentially 'above their pay-grade' and therefore pass their observations up through the chain of command to the Minister of Transportation and hopefully the Prime Minister.</div>
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I do not see how we can begin to address the massive societal change that unmanned autonomous vehicle capability will bring unless we use joined-up-thinking and involve decision-makers representing the key stakeholders in government, business and society.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
To that end it is very encouraging that the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, & Transportation is holding a hearing on 15 May titled: "<a href="http://www.commerce.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?p=Hearings&ContentRecord_id=f228343f-36b3-4517-b01f-9f15624eb05d" target="_blank">The Road Ahead: Advanced Vehicle Technology and its Implications</a>".</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But even now we are making decisions on major public transportation projects and committing funds for projects that will take decades to pay for, with no cognisance of the impacts of autonomous vehicles in possibly as little as five years time.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
We simply cannot act soon enough if we want to make best use of public funds and tax-payers interests in my opinion. So, who will champion the cause of autonomous vehicles and ensure that our limited resources are used as wisely as possible?</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-39791162355301249732013-05-07T22:21:00.000-07:002013-05-09T08:03:54.402-07:00Autonomous Vehicles: An Inconvenient Truth<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 15px;">Just to let you know that I will be presenting on the subject of "Autonomous Vehicles: An Inconvenient Truth" on a free webinar, hosted by Globis Consulting on Wed May 22 at 11:00am EDT.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 15px;"><br /></span>
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 15px;">Registration for the webinar is <a href="https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5565257618864861184?t=2013-05-02_10:27:00&goback=%2Egna_4731574" target="_blank">here</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 15px;"><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 15px;">My presentation will briefly outline the basics of autonomous vehicle technology, what the paradigm shift will be, and how I see autonomous vehicles being deployed as a result of the likely money flows and business cases. </span><br /><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 15px;">This will serve as useful background knowledge to then help you understand the 'Inconvenient Truth' that I refer to in the title. This relates to a number of issues which you may already be aware of, if you have been following the development of this technology closely. </span></span><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 15px;">If we only look at these issues from the perspective of</span></span><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 15px;"> the existing paradigm then they are robust 'positions' that have stood the test of time. However, I trust that you will agree that the forecast from many voices is now that change is definitely on the way and that it is no longer 'business as usual'.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 15px;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 15px;">When we look from the perspective of the new paradigm, then it becomes clear that the positions taken by these organizations will be impacted, if not disrupted. </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 15px;">It is therefore my opinion that these issues need to be openly discussed so that we can all gain a better understanding of what may happen in the future and how we can best prepare for it. </span><br /><span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 15px;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 15px;">There is still plenty of time to act, if that is considered necessary. But given how long it can sometimes take government and businesses to understand and act on an issue, then we hope that at the very least this presentation will raise awareness and provide decision-makers with some 'food for thought'.</span><br />
<br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 15px;">If we don't discuss and tease out where we stand with these issues, then there is the risk that we could waste billions in public spending and that many company business models could disrupt and cause them to go bust.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 15px;"><br /></span>
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-56733703704293217782013-04-29T09:02:00.001-07:002013-04-29T10:15:57.121-07:00The Inevitable Rise of Autonomous Vehicle Fleets<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Following significant
further investigation of the potential impacts of the deployment of autonomous
vehicles it appears that the overall impact on society could be even greater
than that of the internet. In a sense
the internet was essentially a ‘virtual revolution’, whereas this will be a
‘real revolution’. Why do I think this?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">To understand this more
clearly, then the paradigm shift itself needs to be understood and put in the
context of the societal norms where it will be introduced. For this post I will confine myself to
the North American context.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Several of the special
guests that have been permitted rides in the Google self-driving car in public
roads have made similar comments along the lines of <a href="http://transportationblog.dallasnews.com/2013/02/googles-self-driving-car-hits-the-streets-in-austin.html/" target="_blank">Coby Chase, TxDOT’sdirector of government and public affairs at the Texas Transportation Forum inFebruary 2013</a>: “The remarkable thing was that it was a little unremarkable.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Similarly the paradigm
shift appears unremarkable – it is simply that a vehicle can travel
unmanned. But when we start to unravel
this novel concept then we find that it has profound and remarkable
implications for society:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<ol start="1" style="margin-top: 0cm;" type="1">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">A vehicle that can drive unmanned can do work by
carrying people and goods.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">A vehicle that can do work can make money for its
owner.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">A vehicle that can make money will be in great demand
in a free-market economy.</span></li>
</ol>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">But again, this initial
unravelling doesn’t reveal the breadth of the impact of the autonomous
vehicle. So allow me to sketch out a
possible implementation scenario that will unravel the new paradigm a little
more.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Once the autonomous vehicle is
certified safe for unmanned use then a number of businesses/sectors will be
more than ready to purchase this technology.
In fact I expect that their orders will have been placed many months or
even years in advance, as if they don’t utilize the cost saving and efficiency
benefits of the autonomous technology then they will lose out to their
competitors:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<ul style="margin-top: 0cm;" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">The trucking industry – by removing driver costs,
reducing fuel costs and reducing maintenance costs then they can maintain
profit margins and still the price of goods in shops will reduce.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">The taxi industry – any good taxi driver knows this
technology and ‘this day’ is coming.
<a href="http://www.schallerconsult.com/taxi/taxifb.pdf" target="_blank">For a New York Taxi the driver is approximately 57% of the cost of a ride</a> – it is difficult to see how they could compete with
autonomous taxis.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Car rental companies – most users will quickly realize
that that hiring an autonomous car only when transportation is needed will be
cheaper than a longer hire of an ordinary vehicle that is likely to be
unused most of the time. Also their
rental autonomous vehicles will suffer less damage, require less maintenance and overall
be cheaper to run and allow them more flexibility on not requiring returns
to a specific location.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Car-share companies – their business models will
naturally migrate to autonomous technology as it a simple progression of
their existing models.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Ride-share companies - their business models will
naturally migrate to autonomous technology as it a simple progression of
their existing models.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ul>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">You will note that a
common theme is emerging here. The early
adopters all run fleets. But what will
happen is that (apart from the trucking industry) their business models are
converging – they will now in fact be competing against each other.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">But what about the
average person? The more entrepreneurial
minded individuals will realize that with an autonomous vehicle that they will be able to
use it for their commute to work, but they can then assign it to an ad-hoc
autonomous taxi company operating in the ‘cloud’ that will, for a small fee, hire
it out to those in need of transportation, at cheaper rates than even the taxi
companies. Users in need of a vehicle
simply use a mobile device such as a smart phone or Google Glass etc. and send
the details of their travel requirements to the cloud. Before the time that the
vehicle is due to be returned to the owner then the cloud based company can
have arranged for any maintenance, cleaning and re-fueling. Thus the owner might actually make a small
daily profit, even allowing for depreciation – which is a considerably better
financial situation than an ordinary car which sits idle for around approximately
95% of the day.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Again – the fleet theme
is repeated. This time with private
individuals and their low overheads and low profit expectations against the
aforementioned business based autonomous vehicle fleets.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">But what about public
transport? Well it is easy to see that
bus services could be severely impacted.
They require riders to travel to and from fixed bus stops and will
therefore have a lower level of service and probably have a lower quality feel
than using an autonomous taxi. Those
buses serving high density corridors will always have the advantage of being
able to densely pack passengers into a single ‘metal box’, but on any routes
where road space is not at a premium then some, if not all ridership, could be
lost to the autonomous taxis. This
leaves the bus operators with an interesting dilemma – of how to adapt their
operational and business models to survive, or even thrive in this new
environment. The use of autonomous buses
is certainly an option, but research is definitely needed to determine what
might be an optimum solution.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">And LRT? Again the principle of high density corridors
ensures the continuing need for LRT, but the lower-ridership peripheral routes
may need review as to their continued viability. What is of concern to the fiscally minded, is
whether the operational, business and revenue models for proposed LRT lines or
extensions are sufficiently robust for their plans and designs to continue
being designed from within the existing paradigm. When the large capital costs of LRT
construction is taken into account, and the operational subsidy that most
service require, an autonomous taxi alternative, funded by the private sector,
may begin to look a very attractive alternative.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">So there appears to be
market forces at work, because autonomous vehicles can make their owners money, that
could lead to rapid deployment and a certain degree of market penetration. But there is another very significant market
dynamic, or trend that will come into play as well. That is the <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomiogeron/2013/01/23/airbnb-and-the-unstoppable-rise-of-the-share-economy/" target="_blank">rapidly growing trend of the ‘shared economy’</a> which is well illustrated by the rapid growth of carshare and
ride-share services, especially in trend-setting hubs such as San Francisco and
other Californian cities. This is
clearly seen in the statistically significant reduction in ownership of cars by
the younger demographics and the rising average age of gaining a driving
license and the fact that they simply <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/04/22/why-arent-younger-americans-driving-anymore/" target="_blank">don't drive as much as in the past</a>. Much of this is related to
greater awareness of environmental and sustainability issues from education, as
well as a growing addiction to social media – where <a href="http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/publications/road_traffic/distracted_driving/en/" target="_blank">driving has now become the distraction</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Proof can be found in the
claims from carshare companies, such as Car2Go who operate in Calgary who in
conversation with myself claimed that a single Car2Go vehicle
can replace up to twenty privately owned vehicles. A review of research shows that <a href="http://www.uctc.net/access/38/access38_carsharing_ownership.pdf" target="_blank">one car-share vehicle can be seen to remove between nine and thirteen other vehicles from the roads</a>. This principle can be expected in autonomous vehicle fleets, and a study by the Earth Institute (EI) of Columbia University
“<a href="http://sustainablemobility.ei.columbia.edu/projects/development-of-sustainable-mobility-business-plan/" target="_blank">Transforming Personal Mobility</a>” indicates that in a successful autonomous fleet
one autonomous vehicle could replace approximately six private cars. In addition, the EI authors found that by
relinquishing private car ownership that the average person could reduce their
annual transportation costs by approximately 40% when using conventional cars
as the base for the autonomous vehicle. But when
ultra-lightweight electric powered autonomous vehicles are used then the cost can reduce
by up to 80%. For an average person
these savings could be significant multiples of their current disposable income
and could result in substantial quality of life improvements.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">So overall it appears
that there are safety, efficiency, financial and environmental benefits for
users to switch from privately owned cars to autonomous vehicles, but even greater
advantages if they relinquish ownership of private vehicles and use fleet
autonomous 'taxis'. Those that continue to
drive themselves will actually be sub-optimal road users in a number of
situations, especially in dense traffic as for safety they should maintain
larger headways due to slower reaction times.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">How could this all affect
our cities? Well this is where we see a
very interesting challenge emerging.
Most North American cities it seems would like to make their streets
much more liveable and desirable places to be – hence the rise and rise of
concepts such as ‘<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reclaim_the_Streets" target="_blank">reclaim the streets</a>’ and ‘<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complete_streets" target="_blank">complete streets</a>’. The desire is for pedestrians and cyclists to
be actively encouraged and to remove as much fast-moving, dangerous and
polluting traffic from urban streets as possible. We see so many opportunities to move towards
these ideals with the deployment of autonomous vehicles.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Firstly the requirements
for parking will reduce dramatically as the autonomous vehicles can simply drop riders
off and then either proceed to free parking outside of the inner city area, or
be available for the next hire through the cloud. This gives rise to the interesting question
of ‘What do we want to do with this reclaimed land and these re-claimed parking
structures?’. We suspect that the urban
planners and the private developers could have diametrically opposite desires
here – which is why it could be very important for city planners to review
policy at an early stage.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Secondly, because of the
efficiency that autonomous vehicles will move through inner-city streets, as mentioned
earlier, the human drivers will be highlighted as the sub-optimal element.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Thirdly, because
autonomous vehicles will be the most courteous and safest of drivers, the opportunity to
promote pedestrian and cyclists facilities above autonomous vehicles will be an enticing
possibility for urban planners.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">Finally, as autonomous vehicles won’t
crash as much there will be a desire for them to shed up to three quarters of their weight.
That is the weight that current vehicles carry simply because we require
that they protect us in the case of a crash, which 95% of the time will be as
result of human error.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric;">
<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">When these factors are
combined it is possible to identify that there would be a growing desire to ban
human drivers from a city core and create something like the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_congestion_charge" target="_blank">London CongestionCharge Zone</a>, where only autonomous vehicles are allowed inside the defined zone. With the ideal conditions to optimize
autonomous vehicle fleets we expect that ultra-lightweight electric autonomous vehicles could
become the standard vehicle to journey within the autonomous vehicle only</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt;"> zone providing safety,
operational efficiency, financial and environmental benefits. Pedestrians and cyclists would feel much more
secure than with human drivers and the possibilities to improve the streetscape
and promote community living and improve quality of life could have urban
planners in some form of 'planning heaven'.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;">If Google do release
their autonomous vehicle technology to the public in 2018, and autonomous vehicles are certified
safe for unmanned use in say 2020, then taking a very optimistic view with this
technology I predict that the first city might institute an autonomous vehicle only zone
possibly as soon as 2023. We may even
see a race for the first city in each country to implement such a zone as the
benefits could be very appealing to both city centre businesses and residents.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<!--EndFragment-->Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-66847467221201206502013-04-16T21:58:00.001-07:002013-04-16T21:58:20.137-07:00WOW! - 96,000 Miles Without Safety Critical Intervention<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;">I have just seen the <a href="http://www.itif.org/media/social-and-economic-case-autonomous-vehicles#video" target="_blank">ITIF Talk 10 April</a> - At around 29 mins of the video, Chris Urmson of Google confirms that they have done in excess of 500,000 miles testing of the Google Self-Driving Car on the public roads, but the headline for me is that they have done 96,000 miles without safety critical human intervention.</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;" /><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;">Let's put that in perspective:</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;">Extending Bryant Walker Smith's calculation from <a href="http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/about/people/bryant-walker-smith" target="_blank">here</a>:</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;" /><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;">The average person has a crash about once every 110,000 miles.</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;">Previously Google told us 50,000 miles without intervention, which meant there was only a 27% probability that the car was as good at avoiding crashes as person.</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;">But now, with 96,000 miles there is a 45% probability that the car is as good at avoiding crashes as a person. That is maybe 6 to 10 years for an average driver without a crash.....</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;" /><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;">Quite simply - Statistically the Google SDC in the 'ideal' driving conditions of the southern States is almost as good as the average person.</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;" /><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;">But I assume that we need at least 95% confidence that they will crash less than people - which we won't reach until 473,000 miles.</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;" /><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;">On DriverlessCarHQ we counted 32 unique license plates for Google SDCs - and we estimate that Google could possible be racking up somewhere around 1,000 miles/day of testing on public roads. We have no idea how much simulator testing they have achieved - but clearly any improvements seem to be feeding back well into the real world testing.</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;" /><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;">Whatever the metric that NHTSA require to certify the SDC safe for public use in the U.S., it is clear that Google are making very solid progress in their development program.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;">WOW! - Google are indicating that this technology will be in public hands in about 5 years time - so from when they first said this in Sept 2012 we can maybe expect 2017-2018. That sounds very plausible given that their development program only started in 2009 and four years later they have a self-driving car that is already almost as good as a person statistically speaking. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;">With another four or five years of development and the potential to rack up probably another 2 million miles of testing then this whole project looks very credible and on program based on my own interpretation of the data available.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.727272033691406px; line-height: 13.63636302947998px;">As ever - what do you think? Please add a comment and let me know.</span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-90746283906610436502013-04-14T21:22:00.000-07:002013-04-14T22:04:36.759-07:00Urbanism Speakeasy - Driverless cars, the most courteous driversA few weeks ago, one of my Institute of Transportion Engineers contacts, Andy Boenau invited me to do a podcast for his Urbanism Speakeasy website.<br />
<br />
Andy is doing a whole series of interviews on all sorts of subjects around transportation aimed at listeners from all backgrounds, with a view to avoiding jargon and overly technical explanations - to make our fascinating transportation profession accessible to all.<br />
<br />
Please let me know if we succeeded with my interview - I should warn you that it is 45 minutes long - so maybe download and play in a quieter time of day. There is plenty to think about as we covered a whole range of subjects in the the autonomous vehicle space - which will affect almost every aspect of society<br />
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You will find the podcast <a href="http://www.urbanismspeakeasy.com/podcast/google-driverless-cars/" target="_blank">here</a>.<br />
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-49904663915094168162013-04-11T15:06:00.000-07:002013-04-11T15:06:56.415-07:00An elephant in the room?...<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Wednesday 10 April, 2013 I had the privilege of presenting at the Canadian Institute of Transportation Engineering <a href="http://www.cite7.org/Calgary2013/CalgaryTechnicalProgram.php" target="_blank">(CITE) Annual Meeting</a> in Calgary.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I attended some really excellent presentations on the Monday and Tuesday. Many of the projects or designs being discussed involved expensive infrastructure and long range plans looking forward 20, 30, 40 or more years.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But in almost every presentation I had the frustrating thought: 'This project or design would have looked different if the engineers and planners had been aware of the impact of autonomous vehicles'.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This resonates very much with the <a href="http://www.freakonomics.com/2012/12/11/from-horse-power-to-horsepower-to-processing-power/" target="_blank">Freakonomics challenge</a> of December 2012 that had spurred me on to start my <a href="http://community.ite.org/Blogs/BlogViewer/?BlogKey=5deef304-090d-430a-8e7f-6a171ccdd22e" target="_blank">ITE blog</a>:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></i></span>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: white;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">"Surprisingly few people, </span></i></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: white;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">even within the transportation planning</span></i></span><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"> world, </span></i></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><span style="font-size: large;">are talking about this pending revolution." </span><span style="font-size: x-small;">Freakonomics</span></i></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So when it was my turn to present, I started with a slide asking "Is there an elephant in the room?" and explained that I would like to move the discussion forward so that ITE members can overcome the credibility gap and progress along this scale of being:</span><br />
<br />
<ol>
<li style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Unaware</span></li>
<li style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Informed</span></li>
<li style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Challenged</span></li>
<li style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Excited</span></li>
<li style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Active</span></li>
</ol>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the rest of my presentation, which can be <a href="https://www.box.com/s/3ciu5pe1vp6bxvqfczvi" target="_blank">found here</a>, I explained:</span></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">how technology is developing exponentially</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">how autonomous vehicles work</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">the level of development of autonomous vehicles</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">details of the Google Self Driving Car project in particular</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">the paradigm shift that occurs once autonomous vehicles are certified safe to travel unmanned</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">benefits and challenges</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">when we can expect this technology to arrive - 2017-2018 according to Google</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">the transformative effect it could have on transportation and society</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">a possible implementation scenario</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">possible public and private sector responses</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">challenges to transportation professionals and our projects</span></li>
</ul>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">During the 90 minute round-table discussion that followed the three technology themed presentations we talked about many transportation issues that arise from the deployment of autonomous vehicles. But I was not surprised to find that the discussion frequently strayed to touch on many topics outside of transportation, as those present gained a greater understanding of the magnitude of change that autonomous vehicles will bring.</span></div>
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<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I talked about unintended consequences of not planning for autonomous vehicles, as I was not aware of any jurisdiction in North America that has currently allowed for the impacts of autonomous vehicles in any of its short, medium or long range transportation plans.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But one unintended consequence was that several conference delegates came to the mic to contribute or ask a question, and basically said 'Paul, you've scared us!' - whereas I had hoped to merely 'challenge'.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Perhaps there wasn't an elephant in the room after all. Maybe it was an 800 lb gorilla!</span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4926887082463941466.post-85114905093323150202013-03-23T16:48:00.000-07:002013-03-24T02:14:52.139-07:00A new paradigmIt is my personal belief that the impending arrival of autonomous road vehicles (driverless or self-driving cars) will transform society.<br />
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I don't think that any society is ready for this 'paradigm shift'. Not even partially ready. If we were we would be viewing the development of our urban centers, parking requirements, transit plans etc. in a very different way to what we are currently.<br />
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Most people simply don't realize quite how dramatic the change will be and how soon it will arrive.<br />
<br />
Yet this technological tidal wave is bearing down upon us and we are continuing on, business as usual, whilst the time for a proactive response is fast running out. Yes, really; time is short. <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/25/tech/innovation/self-driving-car-california" target="_blank">Google have indicated</a> that their self driving car technology could be in public hands by 2017-2018. We therefore only have maybe four years to plan for this eventuality.<br />
<br />
This blog will seek to address some of those impacts and raise awareness of just how transformative this new paradigm might be. The more that people are aware of how things might change, then the greater chance that they might choose to do something about it.<br />
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The focus of the blog will be the impacts of autonomous vehicles, but the background to this rapidly evolving story is the technology revolution that is happening so fast that it is almost impossible to keep up with it. This development of technology is occurring at an exponential rate, which means that the rate of change isn't constant, but it is accelerating.<br />
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There are major trends within the technology revolution that are relatively easy to spot; the key one for this blog topic is automation of everyday tasks. With autonomous vehicles this is essentially the creation of a robot that will do the driving for us.<br />
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The key to the automation of the driving task is not the mechanics of the vehicle itself, not even the sensors that it uses to perceive the world around it. Those items have been in use for many decades and we already have off-the-shelf version of vehicle parts and sensors such that many undergraduate university courses have students building their own version of 'smart vehicles'.<br />
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What is key to the autonomous vehicle is the development of an artificial intelligence operating system which uses information from the sensors to determine how to safely negotiate the vehicle from its origin to the destination chosen by the operator of the vehicle. Ultimately the operator doesn't even have to be in the vehicle, or anywhere near it. <br />
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The new paradigm will occur when these vehicles can operate unmanned. At this point the autonomous vehicle can do work by carrying people and goods and make money for its owner. In a capitalistic society following free market principles the ability to make money by simply owning an autonomous vehicle will prove attractive to many individuals, businesses and government organizations.<br />
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As an individual reading this in a developed country there is a good chance that you already own a vehicle, or are expecting to own one in the next four years. My advice to you is to consider the fact that Google have been discussing the possibly of <a href="http://telematicsnews.info/2012/04/29/google-in-talks-with-car-makers-insurers-about-self-driving-car_a3292/" target="_blank">retro-fitting</a> existing vehicles and that if you plan carefully you can minimize what you spend on transportation and maximize your benefits.<br />
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Future blogs will go into more detail and identify areas many of the other areas of impacts and how we might respond.<br />
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10690492661166419670noreply@blogger.com6